Still the pick after the midday update. Rated top on form alone and second once the market is blended in. Lightly raced, placed in 8 of 10, beaten a nose in the Ebor on wet ground, and his chance rises as the track softens. Take $11 or better, where the edge holds up in every version of the model.
12.6% to win, the highest in the field. Eased to $6.50 but his fair price is about $8. Only a bet if he drifts there.
Fair price $13.90 against $8.50. 57kg, gate 18, settles back, unproven at 3200m. Leave him out of the exotics.
Firmed from $11 into $9.50 today. Fair price $13, and rain is not her friend. Keep her for the minor placings only.
Good 4 this morning. 3 to 15mm and possible storms forecast today, then only a slight chance of a shower Tuesday. Track manager expects Soft 5 or 6.
Market moves, Sunday to Monday midday
Money for So You Are and Shockletz has pushed both below their fair prices. James J Braddock's drift lines up with only a couple of trackwork sessions since arriving.
Top ten, fair price against the market
Green means the market is longer than the fair price. Red means it is shorter, so you are being underpaid.
All 24, rated
Win chance from 120,000 simulated races on Monday midday prices. Tap a horse for the notes.
What the rain does
The official rating posts Tuesday morning. Pick the track and watch the order move. The black tick is the base case.
Model weighting: Good 4 15%, Soft 5 to 6 70%, Soft 7+ 15%, following the track manager's call of Soft 5 or 6.
Your bets, in dollars
Enter what you are putting on this race. Stakes split in the same proportions as the model's staking. Switch bets in or out and the money moves to the rest.
Bet slip
Rounded to whole dollars, or 50c on budgets under $40, so the total never exceeds your budget. Each way is half win, half place. Skip TAB fixed odds: that book is running about 25% margin. The trifecta dividend is unknown, so the slip shows your flexi percentage.
How it was priced
- Started from the market, with the bookmaker margin stripped out and the longshots trimmed to correct the usual bias towards them.
- Scored each runner on class and progression, proven stamina, weight, barrier and expected position in the run, ground, jockey and other risks. In a handicap the weights already level the field, so these scores are the adjustments around that.
- Blended the two, 35% form scores and 65% market, the way the syndicates combine their own model with public odds.
- Simulated the race 120,000 times across three track ratings, with noise on every horse, to get win, top 3 and top 4 chances.
- Set each fair price as one over the win chance, and sized stakes at a quarter of the Kelly amount.
Midday update
- All prices refreshed to Monday midday. The TAB book has widened to about 125% margin.
- James J Braddock marked down for limited Australian trackwork, on top of the market drift.
- Trifecta rebuilt around the new order: So You Are into the second leg, Middle Earth to third.
- Sons And Lovers each way now waits for $21. Point Of Law now waits for $8.
Stress tests
Three separate sources agree on all 24 barriers and weights. No scratchings since the draw.
Partly. At $10 his edge runs from minus 8% to plus 4% depending on assumptions. At $11 it is positive in every version, only just in the most cautious one.
Yes. Overpriced by 30% to 47% in every version, including one crediting O'Brien's Curragh Cup to Melbourne Cup record with Rekindling and Twilight Payment.
Overbet by 26% to 30% at $9.50 in every version. The money has run past the form.
Possibly, since weight scales rose in 2025. Halving the weight penalty takes Sons And Lovers to break-even at $19 and value at $21.
Caveats
- Factor weights are judgement calls, not fitted to past results.
- The internationals running first-up are unknowns on fitness.
- Prices will keep moving. Check yours against the fair prices before you bet.
- The winner comes from the model's top eight about 62% of the time, which still leaves better than a one in three chance it does not.