Still the winner, and now the market agrees. He was crunched from $11 to $6.50 this morning, which takes him shorter than his fair price. If you took $10 or $11 yesterday, you have beaten the market. Do not chase him at $6.50.
Drifted from $6.50 to $9 while the money went to Hopewell Rock. Fair price $8.65, and he gets the trail behind the speed that has won the early races. Take $9.
Fair price $14.17 against $9. 57kg, gate 18, settles back, and backmarkers have made little ground today. Leave him out of the exotics.
Fair price $34.50 against $41, the biggest overlay in the race. Proven stayer who needs to go forward, and that is what the track is rewarding.
Soft 5 after 7.4mm overnight, rail out 3m, overcast clearing to fine. Could be Good 4 by the jump. Asterix scratched this morning, so 23 run.
Market moves, Monday midday to race morning
The plunge on Hopewell Rock has run past his fair price, and Point Of Law has drifted out to it. Goodie Two Shoes has been backed well below where she rates.
Top ten, fair price against the market
Green means the market is longer than the fair price. Red means it is shorter, so you are being underpaid.
All 23, rated
Win chance from 100,000 simulated races on race-morning prices, 23 runners. Tap a horse for the notes.
What the rain does
Soft 5 at the 6am inspection and drying. Pick a rating and watch the order move. The black tick is the model, which blends Good 4 and Soft 5.
Model weighting: Good 4 35%, Soft 5 65%. No more rain is forecast, so Soft 7 is shown for interest only.
Your bets, in dollars
Enter what you are putting on this race. Stakes split in the same proportions as the model's staking. Switch bets in or out and the money moves to the rest.
Bet slip
Rounded to whole dollars, or 50c on budgets under $40, so the total never exceeds your budget. Each way is half win, half place. Shop around: the bookmaker margin on this race is still about 17%. The trifecta dividend is unknown, so the slip shows your flexi percentage.
How it was priced
- Started from the market, with the bookmaker margin stripped out and the longshots trimmed to correct the usual bias towards them.
- Scored each runner on class and progression, proven stamina, weight, barrier and expected position in the run, ground, jockey and other risks. In a handicap the weights already level the field, so these scores are the adjustments around that.
- Blended the two, 35% form scores and 65% market, the way the syndicates combine their own model with public odds.
- Simulated the race 100,000 times across the likely track ratings, with noise on every horse, to get win, top 3 and top 4 chances.
- Set each fair price as one over the win chance, and sized stakes at a quarter of the Kelly amount.
Race morning update
- Asterix scratched by stewards this morning. 23 runners.
- Track Soft 5 at 6am after 7.4mm, drying. Weighting moved to Good 4 35%, Soft 5 65%.
- Early races have gone to horses on or near the speed, so on-pace runners nudged up and backmarkers down.
- Shockletz marked down slightly: her rider had surgery on a broken collarbone on Sunday.
- All prices refreshed to race morning. Hopewell Rock win bet switched off; Point Of Law, Sons And Lovers and Kizlyar switched on.
Stress tests
Overbet by 12% to 19% in every version. He is the most likely winner, but the price has gone. Needs $7.50 or better.
Value in three of four versions, up to plus 10%, and break-even in the version that leans hardest on the market. At $8.50 it is a coin flip on value.
Kizlyar at $41 and Sons And Lovers at $20 are value in three of four versions. Kizlyar is the biggest overlay in the race.
Trustyourinstinct overbet by 25% to 44%, Shockletz by 19% to 29%, Goodie Two Shoes by 26% to 39%.
Caveats
- Factor weights are judgement calls, not fitted to past results.
- The early-race bias is two or three races of evidence over shorter trips. Treat it as a nudge, not a rule.
- Prices will keep moving until the jump. Check yours against the fair prices before you bet.
- The winner comes from the model's top eight about 64% of the time, which still leaves better than a one in three chance it does not.